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The future of the financial services industry - centred in the City of London - matters enormously to the health of the United Kingdom’s economy.
The Trade and Co-operation Agreement (TCA) has few provisions on financial services and the UK now appears set to drive a wedge between EU and British rules so it can “benefit” from its new-found Brexit freedom.
In reality, this “wedge” is unlikely to benefit the economic prospects of the City or the United Kingdom.
There can be no doubt that the EU will use the “autonomy of its decision-making process” – as stressed in the TCA. If the UK wishes to row alongside the EU super-tanker and “take” its rules, then the UK will remain “equivalent ”.
But current UK policy intentions suggest there will be an ever-widening gulf by the end of this Commission’s term in 2024 – as the logical outcome of UK policy.
The internationally mobile financial services industry will undoubtedly take account of this probability in planning the location of future business opportunities.
How might this play out by say 2024? Could the divergence cause the end of the City’s dominance of European finance?
It might well do.
Graham Bishop is Chairman of the National Council of the European Movement, as well as a Board Member of the Kangaroo Group and a Council Member of the Federal Trust
He has a rare mastery of the technical details of the financial system... to the extent that he has even been referred to as a one-man think tank! His interests have spanned financial markets, economic/budgetary policy and democracy for several decades.
After his presentation, Graham will be joined by senior members of the London4Europe branch in a panel discussion and taking questions from the audience.