February 18, 2025

Defending Ukraine After A Peace Deal

Defence and Security February 18, 2025

Defending Ukraine After A Peace Deal

Category
Defence and Security

Sir Nick Harvey, former UK Armed Forces Minister and Chief Executive of European Movement UK, offers his view on the latest developments around the war in Ukraine.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer is right to propose sending British troops to join a peace-keeping force in Ukraine if and when any peace deal is concluded. Other European countries will surely follow suit.

But this will be challenging. We don’t have a large enough army to sustain both our current commitments to Estonia and NATO yet also take on significant extra duties. So we need to ramp up our defence fast – but nobody should imagine that our fighting capacity can surge at the flick of a switch. It takes time.

American reluctance to put its own boots on the ground in Ukraine is understandable and reasonable.  As a nation, they are exhausted with fighting other people’s wars. President Trump was elected on a promise to stop that. So European countries should indeed shoulder the operational burden.

But they can only do so safely and effectively with logistical support and defensive cover from NATO – and in practice that means America. Without their support in air cover, supply logistics, and intelligence, the mission would be doomed. It would be no deterrence to further Russian aggression.

Europe must just get over not being in today’s talks in Saudi Arabia. President Macron has done well to gather leaders fast to take a united position. But if Europe is to play the frontline role in sustaining whatever peace Trump and Putin cobble together, we must be included very soon.

President Trump seems to be preparing world opinion for a deal where Russia keeps the land it has illegally grabbed, dictates Ukraine’s future diplomatic status, is freed from economic sanctions and returns to the international community. This would reward their aggression with everything they want!

How could Ukraine, the Baltics, Moldova or any other frontline states possibly believe that Putin will stop there, and not just use a ceasefire to regroup and then come back for more?  Membership of both NATO and the EU are essential to Ukraine’s future. And if a peace-keeping force in Ukraine is only viable with NATO support, they would effectively be half in NATO anyway – so why not admit them?

To step up to its new challenge, Europe must develop more European-level defence budget, planning, policy-making, research, industrial procurement, and full spectrum military capability. This means more resilience, greater competitiveness and closer co-operation. In short, a European Defence Union.

This is not a European army, despite puerile efforts to depict it as such. It is a multi-national capability: NATO is precisely the proto-type. Nor is it an alternative to NATO – but rather, the development of a new strong European pillar within NATO, using NATO’s operational structures.

It must involve EU members and non-members alike – Britain, Türkiye and Norway are vital.  But there will be an EU role in it.

The vision which emerges is something which Trump’s right-wing allies in the UK and Europe traditionally hate and abhor. But they must wake up and smell the coffee! America can’t pull back on the one hand, yet object to Europe stepping up into the gap on the other.

A European Defence Union for all willing countries in Europe (some are neutral) needs to pull all this together. Collectively we must spend more, but strategically – to avoid duplication or gaps. Western Europe must support eastern neighbours to grow and develop industrial and operational capability. Britain wants to be closely involved, but the EU needs to open this up to non-members.

Time is of the essence. Trump has opened his dialogue with Putin. Nobody in Europe wants to alienate Washington or de-couple from it.  But if America wants Europe to stand on its own two feet – in Ukraine and generally – then it must let us do so, and welcome a European pillar in NATO.


SHARE THIS: Facebook Twitter Email