European Movement UK's Public Affairs Manager, Joe Meighan, reflects on what the results of the US 2026 midterms mean for European security and autonomy.
The Democratic victories in the US midterms are welcome news for Europe and the wider world. They offer hope that the presidential election in two years could produce a more progressive winner. But pro-Europeans in the UK and across Europe must resist any temptation to ease off in the pursuit of strategic autonomy (a country or regional bloc's ability to pursue its own national interests, make independent security decisions and act without relying heavily or depending on other foreign powers). And constraining the president's power does not reverse the pressures that have drawn American attention elsewhere since the Cold War ended.
Trump has been the most vocal symptom of America’s retreat from its former role in Western Europe and has accelerated that retreat, but he did not begin the strategic shift. Europe no longer occupies the central place in American strategy it once did. China’s rise and the economic and military importance of the Asia-Pacific have reshaped Washington’s calculations. Barack Obama’s Asian pivot preceded Trump; Joe Biden likewise prioritised competition with China. That focus crosses party lines.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine brought renewed American engagement in European security but did not remove competing demands on American resources or expectations of greater European responsibility.
Much rhetoric from the Democrats has also focused on renewal at home, from the cost of living to restoring confidence in government. Those are important ambitions, but restoring America does not necessarily mean restoring American internationalism. Europeans should be careful about assuming that a progressive domestic programme will bring renewed enthusiasm for underwriting our security in Europe.
Even a committed Democratic Atlanticist elected to office in 2028 would face the same strategic pressures. We should expect warmer cooperation alongside a continued focus on Asia. In sum, a different president would still lead a country whose priorities increasingly lie elsewhere.
This is why strategic autonomy remains essential. Europe needs the capacity to defend itself, sustain its industries, and develop the technologies on which its prosperity depends. In a multi-polar world, it must be capable of competing with both the United States and China, and of making decisions without depending on either power’s permission.
Building that capacity requires sustained joint investment and difficult decisions about sharing responsibility, including across national borders. Counterintuitively, that would strengthen the transatlantic partnership – cooperating as two equals with independent industrial powerbases.
For the UK, geography makes the case for deeper European integration unavoidable. Our security and economic interests demand closer cooperation with our neighbours. Cooperation with our European neighbours can help the UK to act at scale, working to level the international playing field. Waiting for a friendlier White House would leave the underlying weakness untouched; it would continue to leave us exposed to the whims of a very powerful ally.
Constraining Trump’s malign influence is positive for the world. Europe should now use this opportunity to strengthen its ability to act, whoever Americans elect next.