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On Saturday, the country was split in half – this time, not by the Brexit vote, but by the weather.  While the west side of the country was suffering severe rainstorms and flooding, the Suffolk EU Alliance People’s Vote stall was bathed in unseasonably warm sunshine. Situated in the heart of the market town of Beccles, handily opposite a café that sold great coffee and cakes to help keep the group's energy up, their Brexitometer was a draw for local shoppers and people out for a stroll.

The Suffolk EU Alliance is running a stall every Saturday, weather permitting, and have covered many of the county’s towns including Ipswich, Halesworth, Woodbridge, Felixstowe and Lowestoft. As always happens, their Beccles stall got a mixed reaction as Suffolk, with one or two exceptions, was a heavily leave-voting county.  It means that they tend to encounter a fair share of leave voters who are unhappy that we’re campaigning for a vote on the final deal.  But equally there are plenty people who are happy to see the group, as they educate the public about the People’s Vote campaign and the March in London on October 20th. 

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Glostays – Gloucestershire for Europe work closely with Cheltenham for Europe, campaigning tirelessly for a People’s Vote and the benefits of remaining in the EU.

The group runs regular campaign stalls and do their best to cover a large geographical area. So far, most of the group's efforts have been in Stroud, Gloucester and Cirencester. Stalls and meetings are great fun with plenty of laughs. The mood is definitely changing in favour of Glostays and the People's Vote campaign, as is evident by their Brexitometer.

However, the group has been saddened and angered by tales from European nationals living and working in the UK, settled - with families – and now facing an uncertain future.

They have also been inspired and heartened by European tourists, all of whom want the UK to stay in the EU.

In addition, Glostays have mounted leafleting campaigns and demonstrations outside of Gloucestershire City Council and The Cotswold District Council, promoting the People’s Vote campaign, which was great fun! 

In September, Glostays held an event to celebrate European Day of Languages, which was a great success.

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Brexit: The political declaration must be vague and precise at the same time

The issues relating to the status of Northern Ireland after Brexit, and in particular the Irish “backstop,” have not yet been resolved. The major political and administrative challenges confronting the Brexit negotiators in this area are however relatively clear. Assuming that the major economic changes ushered in by Brexit do not take effect until 2021, how can it be ensured that these changes do not create after that date the need for a “hard border” on the island of Ireland that would jeopardise the achievements of the Good Friday Agreement? At the time of writing no answer has been found to this question that will satisfy the British government, the European Union and the Democratic Unionist Party. The terms of the problem needing solution are nevertheless well-established and elements of a possible compromise become daily more sharply defined.

Much more elusive and uncertain is a parallel debate and negotiation occurring in the Brexit talks, that about the Political Declaration that will accompany the Withdrawal Agreement in which the Irish “backstop” will be incorporated. This Political Declaration will supposedly provide significant guidance as to the nature of the economic relationship desired by the EU and UK after Brexit. The Agreement will be a legally precise and binding document, while the Declaration will be more general and aspirational in character. Even so, the Declaration will be far from a formality and widely different conceptions exist of its appropriate style and contents. Although theoretically separate texts, the Agreement and Declaration will be politically and logically linked in a number of respects.

MRS. MAY’S HOPES AND CONSTRAINTS

It is worth recalling that a simple Political Declaration to accompany the Withdrawal Agreement was not the original aspiration of the British government. The British government had hoped in the two years of the Brexit negotiations to agree with the EU a final and definitive arrangement on the future economic relationship, a future economic relationship that would maintain for the UK as much as possible of its current frictionless trade with the EU. This was never a remotely plausible prospect. The EU refused from an early stage to engage in any such discussion before the UK had left the Union in March 2019; two years would in any case have been too short a time to conclude so complicated and wide-ranging a negotiation; and the EU is not going to extend all the benefits of its single market to a country wishing, as does the United Kingdom, to leave the single market. Grudgingly, the British government has acquiesced in this reality, but it has continued to hope that the Political Declaration will be as detailed and politically binding a document as possible, pointing towards a smooth future trading relationship that will obviate among other things the need for a “hard” border in Ireland. As so often in the Brexit negotiations, this British hope will only be capable of very imperfect realisation. The clearer and more specific the Declaration is, the more it is likely to stress the economic losses implicit in Brexit. A clear and specific Declaration is also more likely to emphasise than to reduce the need for the Irish “backstop.”

Two related factors constrain Mrs. May in her approach to the Political Declaration, the need to appease differing groups of mostly Conservative MPs who will later in the year be voting on the package of Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration; and the “red lines” she has herself enunciated of her government’s absolute determination after Brexit to put an end to Freedom of Movement and the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice. Both these considerations make it difficult, perhaps impossible for Mrs. May to agree a Declaration which is vague enough to satisfy a range of MPs and yet precise and encouraging enough to be presented as a negotiating success in defending her “red lines.”

Most Conservative MPs have only a very general idea of the nature of and interconnections between the Withdrawal Agreement and the Political Declaration. They are however aware that at an early stage of the negotiations the United Kingdom agreed to pay its contribution to the European budget until 2020 and beyond, a contribution estimated over time at some 39 billion euros. They have been allowed to believe by Mrs. May’s government that this payment will (or at least should) generate sufficient goodwill on the European side as to result in a favourable trading arrangement for the UK with the European Union after Brexit. It will be an unwelcome shock to them to discover that such is far from being the view of the European Union, which sees these payments as a legal obligation largely unrelated to discussions on future trading arrangements. Mr. Barnier and his colleagues have remained unmoved by British protestations to the contrary.

For the EU, the question of its future trading relationship with the UK is essentially determined by Mrs. May’s “red lines,” the second of her constraints in the Brexit negotiations. The member states of the Union unanimously regard these “red lines” as limiting the scope and depth of the EU’s future trading relationship with the UK. It may be that in the final negotiations on this trading relationship differences of emphasis emerge between the member states on the extent of these limits. But at the moment the general principle of “no cherry-picking” is uncontroversial within the EU27. The EU27 may be prepared not to emphasise this reality in the Political Declaration in order to help Mrs. May, but they will not be prepared to deny it, for instance by endorsing the Chequers proposals. If the EU27 are to move in the direction of greater specificity in the Political Declaration it will not be towards Mrs. May’s preferred outcomes. It will be away from them. The more precise the Political Declaration, the less it will satisfy Mrs. May and those Conservative MPs hoping to see a quick and profitable return on what they regard as their investment of 39 billion euros. The intractability of Mrs. May’s dilemma is underlined by the fact that a vague Political Declaration will be equally disappointing to this particular Parliamentary audience. But Mrs. May’s problems do not stop there.

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Staffs4Europe(North) started in June just as the People’s Vote campaign took off. Nobody realised how much time it would take to fight for our place at the heart of Europe and for the future of our children.

North Staffordshire is a Brexit hot spot. The nickname Brexit Capital has put an otherwise ignored Stoke on Trent on the map. To say they were nervous of setting up street stalls was an understatement.

Our first big target was the Leek agricultural show (all those Brexit supporting farmers!) a month after our inauguration. To build their confidence, they held our first stall in Leek town centre. Despite competing with the World Cup, they exceeded expectations collecting signatures for the People's Vote petition and recruiting supporters who had thought they were lone voices in the wilderness. There were “Out means out” and “Don’t you lot understand democracy?” heckles but on the whole people were friendly regardless of their views on Brexit. Staff4Europe were greatly encouraged and learned a lot about the understanding and views of people genuinely interested in the future of our country.

On show day plenty of visitors, attracted by musicians, were willing to debate with them and they won over a couple of people to Remainer now. Their Brexitometer results suggested a definite swing to Remain.

Another big target was Stoke on Trent. Staff4Europe didn’t think they were ready for the challenge but took the plunge for the September National Action Day and were pleasantly surprised with the results. Local people are becoming more aware of what Brexit really means with some saying how duped they felt after the referendum. Most surprisingly some who still class themselves as Leave voters confessed they are not really bothered whether we Leave or Remain; they just want someone to listen to them. The Brexit at any price hecklers were there but in quiet voice and we got good publicity from the local press. If Stoke on Trent is the Brexit capital then it is still all to play for.

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From broken promises to curry house owners to a spike in hate crimes, there are plenty of Brexit concerns for minority communities.

Belonging to an ethnic minority in the UK encompasses a whole range of diverse experiences and issues. But whichever community you come from, the chances are you’ll have concerns about Brexit. Addressing these worries, and getting ethnic minority voices heard, is the driving force behind the new campaign Ethnic Minorities for a People’s Vote.

A number of Brexit-related issues have disproportionately affected ethnic minorities. One high-profile example is the broken promises to curry house owners during the referendum. They were regaled by Vote Leave’s “save our curry houses” campaign with pledges to increase work permits for non-EU migrant workers after Brexit. Current post-Brexit immigration plans, clamping down on low-skilled migration from anywhere, has betrayed their trust.

Meanwhile, the severe labour shortage in the curry industry continues. Discussions with industry leaders by People’s Vote shows that they think this crisis will never be prioritised, thanks to the constant focus on Brexit.

But the unfairness perceived in this “two-tier” immigration system between EU and non-EU migrants goes beyond this curry house crisis. It goes to matters of the heart: many African, Asian and Caribbean heritage people have expressed resentment at the apparent ease with which “white Europeans” could bring over spouses or family members from their countries of origin. By contrast, the minimum income threshold for British citizens to bring over a spouse from outside the EEA is £18,600. This has caused hardship and separation for tens of thousands of families.

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More than two years on from the referendum, the promises made during the campaign seem further away from ever. Remember the sunny uplands, the “easiest trade deal in history”, the £350m extra each week for the NHS? Brexit hasn’t happened yet – but the damage is already hurting us. Doctors, nurses, carers, scientists and academics are leaving, threatening the sustainability of our social care system and NHS. The economy has taken a hit; inflation is rising; and the weaker pound means holidays and imported food all cost more.

But Brexit isn’t inevitable. If enough MPs find the courage to stand up and do what is right we have a way out of this mess. Our letter, which you can download and print at home, is designed to be folded up like an old fashioned air-mail letter. In it, we call on MPs to back a People’s Vote, with an option to cancel Brexit, as an honourable way out of this mess.

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